Mucinex uses Kinsa Insights to double retailer demand forecast accuracy
How a proprietary 12-week illness forecast reduced forecasting error by 48% and identified $2M+ in additional product demand during an unprecedented season.
48%
Reduction in forecasting error
$2M+
Additional product demand identified
12 wk
Proprietary illness forecast horizon
The Challenge
The timing and intensity of seasonal illness is always unpredictable. COVID-19 exacerbated that unpredictability for illness related brands. Some, such as disinfectants, saw historic sales fueled by panic-buying. Others, like symptom-relieving medications, saw volatile sales due to historically low levels of common colds and flu. Amidst this uncertainty, Mucinex sought to reduce out-of-stocks by ensuring a top 3 national retailer's forecast could cover exceptions in illness driven demand.
The Solution
Kinsa deployed its Illness Based Sales Demand Solution, which leverages Kinsa Insights' proprietary 12-week cough, cold and flu forecast, to accurately predict Mucinex product demand. During an unprecedented illness season, Kinsa's solution reduced the retailer's forecasting error by 48%, reducing Mucinex out-of-stocks, ensuring a superior experience at the shelf, and driving sales.
Interactive Forecast Comparison
Kinsa's forecast tracks actual demand where others fall short
CCF Sales Forecast Comparison
12-week illness season, indexed units
The Impact of Accuracy
Every unit of error means empty shelves
Forecast Error Gap
Absolute units missed vs. actual sales, lower is better
The shaded gap represents missed demand: product that should have been on shelves but wasn't. Kinsa's forecast keeps that gap minimal.
How It Works
From symptom signal to stocked shelves
Illness Data Collected
Kinsa's network of millions of smart thermometers captures 200k+ symptom inputs daily at the hyperlocal level.
12-Week Forecast Built
Kinsa's proprietary model generates a rolling 12-week CCF-based sales demand forecast for each retail location.
Demand Gaps Identified
$2M+ in additional product demand surfaced that the retailer's traditional forecast missed entirely.
Shelves Stay Stocked
Mucinex out-of-stocks reduced, driving sales and ensuring consumers find relief when they need it most.
"Our partnership with Kinsa helps us understand where, when and how much demand there will be for our products, allowing us to better collaborate with our retail partners. This upcoming Cold & Flu season, Kinsa's accurate illness forecast will help us optimize our supply chain, drive revenue and most importantly, have our products on shelves where they are needed, ensuring consumers can rely on Mucinex for symptom relief."
Performance Results
Forecast accuracy that changes the game
Kinsa's illness informed model cut the retailer's demand forecasting error in half, preventing out-of-stocks during the season's peak.
48%
Reduction in forecasting error
$2M+
Additional demand identified above retailer's forecast
Why It Worked
The Kinsa advantage for demand forecasting
Proprietary 12-week CCF illness forecast updated continuously
Captures demand signals at symptom onset, weeks before CDC data
Identified $2M+ in demand the retailer's traditional model missed
Reduced Mucinex out-of-stocks at the shelf during peak illness
Outperformed the retailer's existing illness based data set by 2x
All data aggregated and anonymized, fully privacy compliant